Guides

Guides

Seven methodology guides. Worked examples are fictional. They are not WinSight forecasts and they are not paid values. The hit rates in the evaluation guide are the registered backtest, not live results.

  1. 01

    How to read home/draw/away (1X2) probabilities

    A 1X2 forecast gives three probabilities: home win, draw and away win.

  2. 02

    What is the Dixon–Coles model?

    Dixon–Coles is a statistical model for football scores published in 1997 by Mark Dixon and Stuart Coles.

  3. 03

    How to evaluate football prediction accuracy

    Hit rate (how often the top pick wins) is easy to read but ignores confidence: a 51% call and a 90% call count the same.

  4. 04

    Model probability vs implied odds probability

    Decimal odds of 2.00 imply 1/2.00 = 50%.

  5. 05

    Why draws are hard to predict

    Draws are a common result in European football, and how often they happen varies by league and season.

  6. 06

    Home advantage explained

    Home teams tend to win more often than away teams, for reasons that may include crowd support, travel and familiarity.

  7. 07

    Sample size and calibration

    With 22 forecasts, a true 55% forecaster could easily show 45% or 65% by luck alone (the 95% range is roughly ±20 points).

18+ (21+ where required)

WinSight figures are model estimates for information only. They are not betting advice and do not guarantee any result. Football is unpredictable, so please treat these numbers with care.