Scoring
Each settled prediction is counted market by market. A WIN adds one hit and a LOSS adds one miss. Correct score is scored against the model's Top 1 pick, not any of its Top 3 displayed picks.
Trust engine
Model track record
Every issued prediction stays attached to the model version that made it. Live results, development verification, and backtests are kept visibly separate.
Live record
No settled production predictions yet
The first weekly cohort will appear after dc-1.1 issues predictions and those fixtures are settled. We will show the zero honestly until then.
View upcoming predictions0
settled samples
Backtest
dc-1.1 qualification snapshot
This is a seven-season walk-forward test over 2019/20–2025/26, not an issued-prediction record. It used only information available before each weekly cutoff; live performance can differ.
1X2 accuracy
50.54%
n=17,320
Multiclass Brier
0.6020
Log loss
1.0071
Calibration slope
0.940
Registered selection: dc-1.1 · offset/no-recal/xi=0.0025
Methodology
How this record is scored
VOID handling
POSTPONED and CANCELLED fixtures are recorded as VOID. VOID rows are disclosed in sample details but excluded from both the numerator and denominator, so they cannot inflate or depress the hit rate.
Weekly cut
Weeks start Monday and follow the fixture's UTC kickoff, matching the weekly breakdown on this page. A percentage is wins ÷ (wins + losses); summaries are recomputed from counts, never by averaging weekly percentages.
Model history
Every result remains attached to the model version that produced the prediction. Versions are shown as separate cohorts and are never pooled. Live record means predictions issued by the production pipeline after dc-1.1 went live; development datasets and walk-forward backtests are labeled separately.
Market benchmark
This page does not yet publish a live bookmaker benchmark. The weekly breakdown on this page records model outcomes, while a fair comparison needs matched fixtures, closing prices, market definitions, and identical VOID treatment. We will not place an unmatched number beside the live record.