Why draws are hard to predict

Draws are a common result in European football, and how often they happen varies by league and season. Yet a draw is rarely the single most likely outcome, because its probability is usually squeezed between two win outcomes. So a model can rate a draw at 30% — well above average — and still not "pick" it. That is why hit-rate-only scoreboards under-reward good draw estimates, and why we recommend Brier score or log loss (see guide 3).