Model probability vs implied odds probability

Decimal odds of 2.00 imply 1/2.00 = 50%. Add up the three implied probabilities of a 1X2 market and you usually get more than 100% — e.g. (fictional) 2.00 / 3.40 / 3.80 → 50.0% + 29.4% + 26.3% = 105.7%. The extra 5.7% is the bookmaker's margin. Dividing each by 1.057 gives a rough margin-free estimate (47.3% / 27.8% / 24.9%). A model probability is an independent estimate from data. Differences between the two are not a guarantee of anything: markets are hard to beat, and WinSight does not claim to beat them. This guide is for understanding numbers, not betting advice.