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Informational only — not betting advice.
ELC·Championship

Middlesbrough vs Norwich

Middlesbrough

vs

Norwich

Sat, 12 Sep 2026 14:00:00 GMT·Post-match review

Final

4–3

First published
Model dc-1.2-r20260831T093750ZSat, 05 Sep 2026 22:25:26 GMT
Model dc-1.2-r20260907T081204ZMon, 07 Sep 2026 22:25:32 GMT
Locked at kick-off
Sat, 12 Sep 2026 14:00:00 GMT
Settled after the final whistle
Sat, 12 Sep 2026 22:23:54 GMT

Four markets

Probability view

1X2

Match result

WIN
Home
50%
Draw
25%
Away
25%

Picked Home · Actual Home

O/U 2.5

Total goals

WIN

Over 2.5

54%

Under 2.5

Probabilities describe model uncertainty, not certainty. Correct-score settlement uses the Top 1 pick. Predictions are informational only and are not betting advice.

46%

Picked Over 2.5 · Actual Over 2.5

BTTS

Both teams to score

WIN

Yes

58%

No

42%

Picked Yes · Actual Yes

Correct score

Top 3

LOSS
  1. #11-112%
  2. #22-110%
  3. #31-09%
Score probability field for Middlesbrough versus Norwich

Picked 1-1 · Actual 4-3

Top 3 displayed picks are shown for context; settlement uses the Top 1 pick.

Evidence

Why the model leaned this way

Inputs locked before kickoff: recent WDL, average goals for and against, home/away splits, and model attack/defence ranks.

Home team

Middlesbrough

Last 5 overall

3W · 1D · 1L

5 matches · 1.6 scored · 1.0 conceded per match

Home split

5W · 0D · 0L

5 matches · 2.6 scored · 0.8 conceded per match

Attack rank

66 of 225

Defence rank

55 of 225

Model reference group: ELC

Away team

Norwich

Last 5 overall

2W · 0D · 3L

5 matches · 1.6 scored · 1.6 conceded per match

Away split

2W · 0D · 3L

5 matches · 1.6 scored · 1.8 conceded per match

Attack rank

70 of 225

Defence rank

99 of 225

Model reference group: ELC