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Informational only — not betting advice.
PD·La Liga

Ath Bilbao vs Elche

Ath Bilbao

vs

Elche

Sat, 12 Sep 2026 16:30:00 GMT·Post-match review

Final

1–1

First published
Model dc-1.2-r20260831T093750ZSat, 05 Sep 2026 22:25:26 GMT
Model dc-1.2-r20260907T081204ZMon, 07 Sep 2026 22:25:32 GMT
Locked at kick-off
Sat, 12 Sep 2026 16:30:00 GMT
Settled after the final whistle
Sat, 12 Sep 2026 22:23:54 GMT

Four markets

Probability view

1X2

Match result

LOSS
Home
55%
Draw
25%
Away
20%

Picked Home · Actual Draw

O/U 2.5

Total goals

LOSS

Over 2.5

51%

Under 2.5

Probabilities describe model uncertainty, not certainty. Correct-score settlement uses the Top 1 pick. Predictions are informational only and are not betting advice.

49%

Picked Over 2.5 · Actual Under 2.5

BTTS

Both teams to score

WIN

Yes

56%

No

44%

Picked Yes · Actual Yes

Correct score

Top 3

WIN
  1. #11-112%
  2. #21-011%
  3. #32-010%
Score probability field for Ath Bilbao versus Elche

Picked 1-1 · Actual 1-1

Top 3 displayed picks are shown for context; settlement uses the Top 1 pick.

Evidence

Why the model leaned this way

Inputs locked before kickoff: recent WDL, average goals for and against, home/away splits, and model attack/defence ranks.

Home team

Ath Bilbao

Last 5 overall

2W · 0D · 3L

5 matches · 1.6 scored · 1.8 conceded per match

Home split

2W · 1D · 2L

5 matches · 1.2 scored · 1.0 conceded per match

Attack rank

107 of 225

Defence rank

62 of 225

Model reference group: PD

Away team

Elche

Last 5 overall

0W · 2D · 3L

5 matches · 1.2 scored · 2.6 conceded per match

Away split

0W · 2D · 3L

5 matches · 1.2 scored · 2.0 conceded per match

Attack rank

123 of 225

Defence rank

148 of 225

Model reference group: PD