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Informational only — not betting advice.
PL·Premier League

Aston Villa vs Nott'm Forest

Aston Villa

vs

Nott'm Forest

Sat, 12 Sep 2026 14:00:00 GMT·Post-match review

Final

1–2

First published
Model dc-1.2-r20260831T093750ZSat, 05 Sep 2026 22:25:26 GMT
Model dc-1.2-r20260907T081204ZMon, 07 Sep 2026 22:25:32 GMT
Locked at kick-off
Sat, 12 Sep 2026 14:00:00 GMT
Settled after the final whistle
Sat, 12 Sep 2026 22:23:54 GMT

Four markets

Probability view

1X2

Match result

LOSS
Home
45%
Draw
27%
Away
28%

Picked Home · Actual Away

O/U 2.5

Total goals

LOSS

Over 2.5

47%

Under 2.5

Probabilities describe model uncertainty, not certainty. Correct-score settlement uses the Top 1 pick. Predictions are informational only and are not betting advice.

53%

Picked Under 2.5 · Actual Over 2.5

BTTS

Both teams to score

WIN

Yes

56%

No

44%

Picked Yes · Actual Yes

Correct score

Top 3

LOSS
  1. #11-113%
  2. #21-011%
  3. #32-19%
Score probability field for Aston Villa versus Nott'm Forest

Picked 1-1 · Actual 1-2

Top 3 displayed picks are shown for context; settlement uses the Top 1 pick.

Evidence

Why the model leaned this way

Inputs locked before kickoff: recent WDL, average goals for and against, home/away splits, and model attack/defence ranks.

Home team

Aston Villa

Last 5 overall

2W · 1D · 2L

5 matches · 1.2 scored · 1.6 conceded per match

Home split

3W · 0D · 2L

5 matches · 2.2 scored · 1.6 conceded per match

Attack rank

24 of 225

Defence rank

21 of 225

Model reference group: PL

Away team

Nott'm Forest

Last 5 overall

0W · 3D · 2L

5 matches · 1.0 scored · 1.4 conceded per match

Away split

3W · 1D · 1L

5 matches · 3.0 scored · 1.2 conceded per match

Attack rank

40 of 225

Defence rank

17 of 225

Model reference group: PL