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Informational only — not betting advice.
PD·La Liga

Elche vs Sociedad

Elche

vs

Sociedad

Mon, 07 Sep 2026 19:30:00 GMT·Post-match review

Final

2–3

First published
Model dc-1.2-r20260831T093750ZTue, 01 Sep 2026 01:17:43 GMT
Locked at kick-off
Mon, 07 Sep 2026 19:30:00 GMT
Settled after the final whistle
Mon, 07 Sep 2026 22:25:22 GMT

Four markets

Probability view

1X2

Match result

LOSS
Home
38%
Draw
25%
Away
36%

Picked Home · Actual Away

O/U 2.5

Total goals

WIN

Over 2.5

57%

Under 2.5

Probabilities describe model uncertainty, not certainty. Correct-score settlement uses the Top 1 pick. Predictions are informational only and are not betting advice.

43%

Picked Over 2.5 · Actual Over 2.5

BTTS

Both teams to score

WIN

Yes

60%

No

40%

Picked Yes · Actual Yes

Correct score

Top 3

LOSS
  1. #11-112%
  2. #22-19%
  3. #31-28%
Score probability field for Elche versus Sociedad

Picked 1-1 · Actual 2-3

Top 3 displayed picks are shown for context; settlement uses the Top 1 pick.

Evidence

Why the model leaned this way

Inputs locked before kickoff: recent WDL, average goals for and against, home/away splits, and model attack/defence ranks.

Home team

Elche

Last 5 overall

1W · 2D · 2L

5 matches · 1.0 scored · 2.0 conceded per match

Home split

3W · 1D · 1L

5 matches · 1.2 scored · 1.6 conceded per match

Attack rank

113 of 225

Defence rank

153 of 225

Model reference group: PD

Away team

Sociedad

Last 5 overall

1W · 1D · 3L

5 matches · 1.4 scored · 2.2 conceded per match

Away split

0W · 2D · 3L

5 matches · 0.6 scored · 1.6 conceded per match

Attack rank

81 of 225

Defence rank

115 of 225

Model reference group: PD