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Informational only — not betting advice.
BL1·Bundesliga

Hamburg vs Mainz

Hamburg

vs

Mainz

Sun, 06 Sep 2026 13:30:00 GMT·Post-match review

Final

0–5

First published
Model dc-1.2-r20260828T173552ZMon, 31 Aug 2026 00:33:00 GMT
Model dc-1.2-r20260831T093750ZTue, 01 Sep 2026 01:17:43 GMT
Locked at kick-off
Sun, 06 Sep 2026 13:30:00 GMT
Settled after the final whistle
Sun, 06 Sep 2026 22:39:28 GMT

Four markets

Probability view

1X2

Match result

WIN
Home
35%
Draw
29%
Away
36%

Picked Away · Actual Away

O/U 2.5

Total goals

LOSS

Over 2.5

43%

Under 2.5

Probabilities describe model uncertainty, not certainty. Correct-score settlement uses the Top 1 pick. Predictions are informational only and are not betting advice.

57%

Picked Under 2.5 · Actual Over 2.5

BTTS

Both teams to score

LOSS

Yes

54%

No

46%

Picked Yes · Actual No

Correct score

Top 3

LOSS
  1. #11-114%
  2. #20-111%
  3. #31-010%
Score probability field for Hamburg versus Mainz

Picked 1-1 · Actual 0-5

Top 3 displayed picks are shown for context; settlement uses the Top 1 pick.

Evidence

Why the model leaned this way

Inputs locked before kickoff: recent WDL, average goals for and against, home/away splits, and model attack/defence ranks.

Home team

Hamburg

Last 5 overall

2W · 1D · 2L

5 matches · 1.4 scored · 1.6 conceded per match

Home split

1W · 2D · 2L

5 matches · 1.2 scored · 1.4 conceded per match

Attack rank

133 of 225

Defence rank

111 of 225

Model reference group: BL1

Away team

Mainz

Last 5 overall

2W · 1D · 2L

5 matches · 1.6 scored · 1.6 conceded per match

Away split

4W · 1D · 0L

5 matches · 1.8 scored · 0.6 conceded per match

Attack rank

88 of 225

Defence rank

77 of 225

Model reference group: BL1