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Informational only — not betting advice.
PL·Premier League

Arsenal vs Chelsea

Arsenal

vs

Chelsea

Sun, 06 Sep 2026 15:30:00 GMT·Post-match review

Final

2–1

First published
Model dc-1.2-r20260828T173552ZMon, 31 Aug 2026 00:33:00 GMT
Model dc-1.2-r20260831T093750ZTue, 01 Sep 2026 01:17:43 GMT
Locked at kick-off
Sun, 06 Sep 2026 15:30:00 GMT
Settled after the final whistle
Sun, 06 Sep 2026 22:39:28 GMT

Four markets

Probability view

1X2

Match result

WIN
Home
67%
Draw
20%
Away
13%

Picked Home · Actual Home

O/U 2.5

Total goals

WIN

Over 2.5

55%

Under 2.5

Probabilities describe model uncertainty, not certainty. Correct-score settlement uses the Top 1 pick. Predictions are informational only and are not betting advice.

45%

Picked Over 2.5 · Actual Over 2.5

BTTS

Both teams to score

WIN

Yes

54%

No

46%

Picked Yes · Actual Yes

Correct score

Top 3

LOSS
  1. #12-012%
  2. #21-011%
  3. #32-110%
Score probability field for Arsenal versus Chelsea

Picked 2-0 · Actual 2-1

Top 3 displayed picks are shown for context; settlement uses the Top 1 pick.

Evidence

Why the model leaned this way

Inputs locked before kickoff: recent WDL, average goals for and against, home/away splits, and model attack/defence ranks.

Home team

Arsenal

Last 5 overall

4W · 0D · 1L

5 matches · 2.0 scored · 1.0 conceded per match

Home split

5W · 0D · 0L

5 matches · 1.8 scored · 0.0 conceded per match

Attack rank

7 of 225

Defence rank

7 of 225

Model reference group: PL

Away team

Chelsea

Last 5 overall

3W · 1D · 1L

5 matches · 2.2 scored · 1.8 conceded per match

Away split

1W · 1D · 3L

5 matches · 1.0 scored · 2.2 conceded per match

Attack rank

14 of 225

Defence rank

37 of 225

Model reference group: PL