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Informational only — not betting advice.
PD·La Liga

Alaves vs Osasuna

Alaves

vs

Osasuna

Sun, 06 Sep 2026 16:30:00 GMT·Post-match review

Final

5–2

First published
Model dc-1.2-r20260828T173552ZMon, 31 Aug 2026 00:33:00 GMT
Model dc-1.2-r20260831T093750ZTue, 01 Sep 2026 01:17:43 GMT
Locked at kick-off
Sun, 06 Sep 2026 16:30:00 GMT
Settled after the final whistle
Sun, 06 Sep 2026 22:39:28 GMT

Four markets

Probability view

1X2

Match result

WIN
Home
43%
Draw
29%
Away
28%

Picked Home · Actual Home

O/U 2.5

Total goals

LOSS

Over 2.5

40%

Under 2.5

Probabilities describe model uncertainty, not certainty. Correct-score settlement uses the Top 1 pick. Predictions are informational only and are not betting advice.

60%

Picked Under 2.5 · Actual Over 2.5

BTTS

Both teams to score

WIN

Yes

53%

No

47%

Picked Yes · Actual Yes

Correct score

Top 3

LOSS
  1. #11-114%
  2. #21-012%
  3. #30-011%
Score probability field for Alaves versus Osasuna

Picked 1-1 · Actual 5-2

Top 3 displayed picks are shown for context; settlement uses the Top 1 pick.

Evidence

Why the model leaned this way

Inputs locked before kickoff: recent WDL, average goals for and against, home/away splits, and model attack/defence ranks.

Home team

Alaves

Last 5 overall

3W · 1D · 1L

5 matches · 1.4 scored · 0.6 conceded per match

Home split

3W · 0D · 2L

5 matches · 1.6 scored · 1.2 conceded per match

Attack rank

127 of 225

Defence rank

82 of 225

Model reference group: PD

Away team

Osasuna

Last 5 overall

1W · 1D · 3L

5 matches · 0.8 scored · 1.2 conceded per match

Away split

1W · 1D · 3L

5 matches · 1.2 scored · 1.6 conceded per match

Attack rank

125 of 225

Defence rank

73 of 225

Model reference group: PD