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Informational only — not betting advice.
PD·La Liga

Vallecano vs Santander

Vallecano

vs

Santander

Sat, 05 Sep 2026 16:30:00 GMT·Post-match review

Final

3–2

Away cold start
First published
Model dc-1.2-r20260828T173552ZSun, 30 Aug 2026 00:07:37 GMT
Model dc-1.2-r20260831T093750ZTue, 01 Sep 2026 01:17:43 GMT
Locked at kick-off
Sat, 05 Sep 2026 16:30:00 GMT
Settled after the final whistle
Sat, 05 Sep 2026 22:25:16 GMT

Four markets

Probability view

1X2

Match result

WIN
Home
50%
Draw
28%
Away
22%

Picked Home · Actual Home

O/U 2.5

Total goals

LOSS

Over 2.5

40%

Under 2.5

Probabilities describe model uncertainty, not certainty. Correct-score settlement uses the Top 1 pick. Predictions are informational only and are not betting advice.

60%

Picked Under 2.5 · Actual Over 2.5

BTTS

Both teams to score

WIN

Yes

52%

No

48%

Picked Yes · Actual Yes

Correct score

Top 3

LOSS
  1. #11-014%
  2. #21-113%
  3. #30-011%
Score probability field for Vallecano versus Santander

Picked 1-0 · Actual 3-2

Top 3 displayed picks are shown for context; settlement uses the Top 1 pick.

Evidence

Why the model leaned this way

Inputs locked before kickoff: recent WDL, average goals for and against, home/away splits, and model attack/defence ranks.

Home team

Vallecano

Last 5 overall

2W · 2D · 1L

5 matches · 1.4 scored · 1.0 conceded per match

Home split

2W · 3D · 0L

5 matches · 1.6 scored · 1.0 conceded per match

Attack rank

153 of 225

Defence rank

56 of 225

Model reference group: PD

Away team

Santander

Cold start

Last 5 overall

1W · 1D · 1L

3 matches · 1.7 scored · 1.7 conceded per match

Away split

0W · 0D · 1L

1 matches · 0.0 scored · 1.0 conceded per match

Attack rank

138 of 225

Defence rank

145 of 225

Model reference group: PD