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Informational only — not betting advice.
ELC·Championship

Lincoln City vs Southampton

Lincoln City

vs

Southampton

Sat, 05 Sep 2026 11:30:00 GMT·Post-match review

Final

1–1

Home cold start
First published
Model dc-1.2-r20260828T173552ZSun, 30 Aug 2026 00:07:37 GMT
Model dc-1.2-r20260831T093750ZTue, 01 Sep 2026 01:17:43 GMT
Locked at kick-off
Sat, 05 Sep 2026 11:30:00 GMT
Settled after the final whistle
Sat, 05 Sep 2026 23:52:11 GMT

Four markets

Probability view

1X2

Match result

LOSS
Home
29%
Draw
24%
Away
47%

Picked Away · Actual Draw

O/U 2.5

Total goals

LOSS

Over 2.5

62%

Under 2.5

Probabilities describe model uncertainty, not certainty. Correct-score settlement uses the Top 1 pick. Predictions are informational only and are not betting advice.

38%

Picked Over 2.5 · Actual Under 2.5

BTTS

Both teams to score

WIN

Yes

62%

No

38%

Picked Yes · Actual Yes

Correct score

Top 3

WIN
  1. #11-111%
  2. #21-29%
  3. #32-17%
Score probability field for Lincoln City versus Southampton

Picked 1-1 · Actual 1-1

Top 3 displayed picks are shown for context; settlement uses the Top 1 pick.

Evidence

Why the model leaned this way

Inputs locked before kickoff: recent WDL, average goals for and against, home/away splits, and model attack/defence ranks.

Home team

Lincoln City

Cold start

Last 5 overall

1W · 0D · 2L

3 matches · 1.0 scored · 1.7 conceded per match

Home split

0W · 0D · 1L

1 matches · 1.0 scored · 3.0 conceded per match

Attack rank

106 of 225

Defence rank

140 of 225

Model reference group: ELC

Away team

Southampton

Last 5 overall

3W · 1D · 1L

5 matches · 2.8 scored · 1.4 conceded per match

Away split

4W · 0D · 1L

5 matches · 2.6 scored · 1.2 conceded per match

Attack rank

39 of 225

Defence rank

110 of 225

Model reference group: ELC