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Informational only — not betting advice.
BL1·Bundesliga

Leverkusen vs Union Berlin

Leverkusen

vs

Union Berlin

Sat, 05 Sep 2026 13:30:00 GMT·Post-match review

Final

4–0

First published
Model dc-1.2-r20260828T173552ZSun, 30 Aug 2026 00:07:37 GMT
Model dc-1.2-r20260831T093750ZTue, 01 Sep 2026 01:17:43 GMT
Locked at kick-off
Sat, 05 Sep 2026 13:30:00 GMT
Settled after the final whistle
Sat, 05 Sep 2026 22:25:16 GMT

Four markets

Probability view

1X2

Match result

WIN
Home
68%
Draw
19%
Away
13%

Picked Home · Actual Home

O/U 2.5

Total goals

WIN

Over 2.5

60%

Under 2.5

Probabilities describe model uncertainty, not certainty. Correct-score settlement uses the Top 1 pick. Predictions are informational only and are not betting advice.

40%

Picked Over 2.5 · Actual Over 2.5

BTTS

Both teams to score

LOSS

Yes

56%

No

44%

Picked Yes · Actual No

Correct score

Top 3

LOSS
  1. #12-011%
  2. #22-110%
  3. #31-010%
Score probability field for Leverkusen versus Union Berlin

Picked 2-0 · Actual 4-0

Top 3 displayed picks are shown for context; settlement uses the Top 1 pick.

Evidence

Why the model leaned this way

Inputs locked before kickoff: recent WDL, average goals for and against, home/away splits, and model attack/defence ranks.

Home team

Leverkusen

Last 5 overall

2W · 1D · 2L

5 matches · 2.0 scored · 1.8 conceded per match

Home split

2W · 2D · 1L

5 matches · 2.6 scored · 1.6 conceded per match

Attack rank

30 of 225

Defence rank

47 of 225

Model reference group: BL1

Away team

Union Berlin

Last 5 overall

2W · 2D · 1L

5 matches · 2.6 scored · 1.8 conceded per match

Away split

2W · 0D · 3L

5 matches · 1.2 scored · 2.2 conceded per match

Attack rank

114 of 225

Defence rank

133 of 225

Model reference group: BL1