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Informational only — not betting advice.
FL1·Ligue 1

Lens vs Lorient

Lens

vs

Lorient

Sat, 05 Sep 2026 15:15:00 GMT·Post-match review

Final

0–1

First published
Model dc-1.2-r20260828T173552ZSun, 30 Aug 2026 00:07:37 GMT
Model dc-1.2-r20260831T093750ZTue, 01 Sep 2026 01:17:43 GMT
Locked at kick-off
Sat, 05 Sep 2026 15:15:00 GMT
Settled after the final whistle
Sat, 05 Sep 2026 22:25:16 GMT

Four markets

Probability view

1X2

Match result

LOSS
Home
60%
Draw
22%
Away
18%

Picked Home · Actual Away

O/U 2.5

Total goals

LOSS

Over 2.5

58%

Under 2.5

Probabilities describe model uncertainty, not certainty. Correct-score settlement uses the Top 1 pick. Predictions are informational only and are not betting advice.

42%

Picked Over 2.5 · Actual Under 2.5

BTTS

Both teams to score

LOSS

Yes

57%

No

43%

Picked Yes · Actual No

Correct score

Top 3

LOSS
  1. #11-110%
  2. #22-110%
  3. #32-010%
Score probability field for Lens versus Lorient

Picked 1-1 · Actual 0-1

Top 3 displayed picks are shown for context; settlement uses the Top 1 pick.

Evidence

Why the model leaned this way

Inputs locked before kickoff: recent WDL, average goals for and against, home/away splits, and model attack/defence ranks.

Home team

Lens

Last 5 overall

3W · 0D · 2L

5 matches · 2.2 scored · 1.2 conceded per match

Home split

4W · 0D · 1L

5 matches · 2.8 scored · 1.4 conceded per match

Attack rank

33 of 225

Defence rank

46 of 225

Model reference group: FL1

Away team

Lorient

Last 5 overall

1W · 2D · 2L

5 matches · 1.4 scored · 1.2 conceded per match

Away split

1W · 2D · 2L

5 matches · 1.2 scored · 1.0 conceded per match

Attack rank

73 of 225

Defence rank

106 of 225

Model reference group: FL1