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Informational only — not betting advice.
PL·Premier League

Hull vs Aston Villa

Hull

vs

Aston Villa

Sat, 05 Sep 2026 16:30:00 GMT·Post-match review

Final

0–0

Home cold start
First published
Model dc-1.2-r20260828T173552ZSun, 30 Aug 2026 00:07:37 GMT
Model dc-1.2-r20260831T093750ZTue, 01 Sep 2026 01:17:43 GMT
Locked at kick-off
Sat, 05 Sep 2026 16:30:00 GMT
Settled after the final whistle
Sat, 05 Sep 2026 22:25:16 GMT

Four markets

Probability view

1X2

Match result

LOSS
Home
27%
Draw
25%
Away
48%

Picked Away · Actual Draw

O/U 2.5

Total goals

LOSS

Over 2.5

55%

Under 2.5

Probabilities describe model uncertainty, not certainty. Correct-score settlement uses the Top 1 pick. Predictions are informational only and are not betting advice.

45%

Picked Over 2.5 · Actual Under 2.5

BTTS

Both teams to score

LOSS

Yes

59%

No

41%

Picked Yes · Actual No

Correct score

Top 3

LOSS
  1. #11-112%
  2. #21-29%
  3. #30-19%
Score probability field for Hull versus Aston Villa

Picked 1-1 · Actual 0-0

Top 3 displayed picks are shown for context; settlement uses the Top 1 pick.

Evidence

Why the model leaned this way

Inputs locked before kickoff: recent WDL, average goals for and against, home/away splits, and model attack/defence ranks.

Home team

Hull

Cold start

Last 5 overall

3W · 1D · 1L

5 matches · 1.6 scored · 1.0 conceded per match

Home split

3W · 2D · 0L

5 matches · 1.6 scored · 0.6 conceded per match

Attack rank

61 of 225

Defence rank

63 of 225

Model reference group: PL

Away team

Aston Villa

Last 5 overall

2W · 1D · 2L

5 matches · 1.8 scored · 2.2 conceded per match

Away split

1W · 2D · 2L

5 matches · 1.0 scored · 1.8 conceded per match

Attack rank

21 of 225

Defence rank

25 of 225

Model reference group: PL