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Informational only — not betting advice.
FL1·Ligue 1

Paris SG vs Monaco

Paris SG

vs

Monaco

Fri, 04 Sep 2026 19:05:00 GMT·Post-match review

Final

1–2

First published
Model dc-1.2-r20260828T173552ZSat, 29 Aug 2026 03:40:52 GMT
Model dc-1.2-r20260831T093750ZTue, 01 Sep 2026 01:17:43 GMT
Locked at kick-off
Fri, 04 Sep 2026 19:05:00 GMT
Settled after the final whistle
Sat, 05 Sep 2026 07:22:18 GMT

Four markets

Probability view

1X2

Match result

LOSS
Home
72%
Draw
16%
Away
12%

Picked Home · Actual Away

O/U 2.5

Total goals

WIN

Over 2.5

73%

Under 2.5

Probabilities describe model uncertainty, not certainty. Correct-score settlement uses the Top 1 pick. Predictions are informational only and are not betting advice.

27%

Picked Over 2.5 · Actual Over 2.5

BTTS

Both teams to score

WIN

Yes

61%

No

39%

Picked Yes · Actual Yes

Correct score

Top 3

LOSS
  1. #12-19%
  2. #22-08%
  3. #33-18%
Score probability field for Paris SG versus Monaco

Picked 2-1 · Actual 1-2

Top 3 displayed picks are shown for context; settlement uses the Top 1 pick.

Evidence

Why the model leaned this way

Inputs locked before kickoff: recent WDL, average goals for and against, home/away splits, and model attack/defence ranks.

Home team

Paris SG

Last 5 overall

2W · 2D · 1L

5 matches · 2.2 scored · 1.8 conceded per match

Home split

4W · 1D · 0L

5 matches · 3.0 scored · 1.8 conceded per match

Attack rank

6 of 225

Defence rank

16 of 225

Model reference group: FL1

Away team

Monaco

Last 5 overall

3W · 0D · 2L

5 matches · 1.8 scored · 1.4 conceded per match

Away split

2W · 1D · 2L

5 matches · 2.0 scored · 2.4 conceded per match

Attack rank

34 of 225

Defence rank

83 of 225

Model reference group: FL1