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Informational only — not betting advice.
FL1·Ligue 1

Lyon vs Auxerre

Lyon

vs

Auxerre

Fri, 04 Sep 2026 17:00:00 GMT·Post-match review

Final

3–1

First published
Model dc-1.2-r20260828T173552ZFri, 28 Aug 2026 17:38:44 GMT
Model dc-1.2-r20260831T093750ZTue, 01 Sep 2026 01:17:43 GMT
Locked at kick-off
Fri, 04 Sep 2026 17:00:00 GMT
Settled after the final whistle
Sat, 05 Sep 2026 07:22:18 GMT

Four markets

Probability view

1X2

Match result

WIN
Home
58%
Draw
23%
Away
19%

Picked Home · Actual Home

O/U 2.5

Total goals

WIN

Over 2.5

55%

Under 2.5

Probabilities describe model uncertainty, not certainty. Correct-score settlement uses the Top 1 pick. Predictions are informational only and are not betting advice.

45%

Picked Over 2.5 · Actual Over 2.5

BTTS

Both teams to score

WIN

Yes

57%

No

43%

Picked Yes · Actual Yes

Correct score

Top 3

LOSS
  1. #11-111%
  2. #21-010%
  3. #32-010%
Score probability field for Lyon versus Auxerre

Picked 1-1 · Actual 3-1

Top 3 displayed picks are shown for context; settlement uses the Top 1 pick.

Evidence

Why the model leaned this way

Inputs locked before kickoff: recent WDL, average goals for and against, home/away splits, and model attack/defence ranks.

Home team

Lyon

Last 5 overall

2W · 1D · 2L

5 matches · 1.6 scored · 1.8 conceded per match

Home split

3W · 1D · 1L

5 matches · 2.0 scored · 1.8 conceded per match

Attack rank

42 of 225

Defence rank

57 of 225

Model reference group: FL1

Away team

Auxerre

Last 5 overall

3W · 0D · 2L

5 matches · 2.0 scored · 2.0 conceded per match

Away split

1W · 2D · 2L

5 matches · 1.8 scored · 2.2 conceded per match

Attack rank

104 of 225

Defence rank

107 of 225

Model reference group: FL1