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Informational only — not betting advice.
ELC·Championship

Swansea vs Watford

Swansea

vs

Watford

Tue, 01 Sep 2026 18:45:00 GMT·Post-match review

Final

2–0

First published
Model dc-1.2-r20260810T042826ZTue, 25 Aug 2026 22:26:00 GMT
Model dc-1.2-r20260828T173552ZFri, 28 Aug 2026 17:38:44 GMT
Model dc-1.2-r20260831T093750ZTue, 01 Sep 2026 01:17:43 GMT
Locked at kick-off
Tue, 01 Sep 2026 18:45:00 GMT
Settled after the final whistle
Wed, 02 Sep 2026 00:06:54 GMT

Four markets

Probability view

1X2

Match result

WIN
Home
48%
Draw
27%
Away
24%

Picked Home · Actual Home

O/U 2.5

Total goals

WIN

Over 2.5

44%

Under 2.5

Probabilities describe model uncertainty, not certainty. Correct-score settlement uses the Top 1 pick. Predictions are informational only and are not betting advice.

56%

Picked Under 2.5 · Actual Under 2.5

BTTS

Both teams to score

LOSS

Yes

54%

No

46%

Picked Yes · Actual No

Correct score

Top 3

LOSS
  1. #11-113%
  2. #21-012%
  3. #32-09%
Score probability field for Swansea versus Watford

Picked 1-1 · Actual 2-0

Top 3 displayed picks are shown for context; settlement uses the Top 1 pick.

Evidence

Why the model leaned this way

Inputs locked before kickoff: recent WDL, average goals for and against, home/away splits, and model attack/defence ranks.

Home team

Swansea

Last 5 overall

3W · 2D · 0L

5 matches · 1.8 scored · 0.6 conceded per match

Home split

1W · 2D · 2L

5 matches · 1.2 scored · 1.6 conceded per match

Attack rank

100 of 225

Defence rank

80 of 225

Model reference group: ELC

Away team

Watford

Last 5 overall

1W · 2D · 2L

5 matches · 1.0 scored · 2.4 conceded per match

Away split

0W · 1D · 4L

5 matches · 0.6 scored · 2.6 conceded per match

Attack rank

135 of 225

Defence rank

121 of 225

Model reference group: ELC