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← All predictions
Informational only — not betting advice.
ELC·Championship

Stoke vs Norwich

Stoke

vs

Norwich

Tue, 01 Sep 2026 19:00:00 GMT·Post-match review

Final

1–0

First published
Model dc-1.2-r20260810T042826ZTue, 25 Aug 2026 22:26:00 GMT
Model dc-1.2-r20260828T173552ZFri, 28 Aug 2026 17:38:44 GMT
Model dc-1.2-r20260831T093750ZTue, 01 Sep 2026 01:17:43 GMT
Locked at kick-off
Tue, 01 Sep 2026 19:00:00 GMT
Settled after the final whistle
Wed, 02 Sep 2026 00:06:54 GMT

Four markets

Probability view

1X2

Match result

LOSS
Home
31%
Draw
27%
Away
41%

Picked Away · Actual Home

O/U 2.5

Total goals

WIN

Over 2.5

49%

Under 2.5

Probabilities describe model uncertainty, not certainty. Correct-score settlement uses the Top 1 pick. Predictions are informational only and are not betting advice.

51%

Picked Under 2.5 · Actual Under 2.5

BTTS

Both teams to score

LOSS

Yes

57%

No

44%

Picked Yes · Actual No

Correct score

Top 3

LOSS
  1. #11-113%
  2. #20-110%
  3. #31-29%
Score probability field for Stoke versus Norwich

Picked 1-1 · Actual 1-0

Top 3 displayed picks are shown for context; settlement uses the Top 1 pick.

Evidence

Why the model leaned this way

Inputs locked before kickoff: recent WDL, average goals for and against, home/away splits, and model attack/defence ranks.

Home team

Stoke

Last 5 overall

0W · 0D · 5L

5 matches · 0.8 scored · 2.8 conceded per match

Home split

1W · 1D · 3L

5 matches · 1.2 scored · 1.8 conceded per match

Attack rank

151 of 225

Defence rank

129 of 225

Model reference group: ELC

Away team

Norwich

Last 5 overall

1W · 1D · 3L

5 matches · 1.4 scored · 1.8 conceded per match

Away split

3W · 0D · 2L

5 matches · 1.6 scored · 1.6 conceded per match

Attack rank

71 of 225

Defence rank

113 of 225

Model reference group: ELC