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Informational only — not betting advice.
PD·La Liga

Barcelona vs Vallecano

Barcelona

vs

Vallecano

Mon, 31 Aug 2026 19:30:00 GMT·Post-match review

Final

5–2

First published
Model dc-1.2-r20260810T042826ZTue, 25 Aug 2026 22:26:00 GMT
Model dc-1.2-r20260828T173552ZFri, 28 Aug 2026 17:38:44 GMT
Locked at kick-off
Mon, 31 Aug 2026 19:30:00 GMT
Settled after the final whistle
Tue, 01 Sep 2026 11:36:17 GMT

Four markets

Probability view

1X2

Match result

WIN
Home
78%
Draw
15%
Away
8%

Picked Home · Actual Home

O/U 2.5

Total goals

WIN

Over 2.5

64%

Under 2.5

Probabilities describe model uncertainty, not certainty. Correct-score settlement uses the Top 1 pick. Predictions are informational only and are not betting advice.

36%

Picked Over 2.5 · Actual Over 2.5

BTTS

Both teams to score

WIN

Yes

53%

No

47%

Picked Yes · Actual Yes

Correct score

Top 3

LOSS
  1. #12-012%
  2. #23-011%
  3. #31-09%
Score probability field for Barcelona versus Vallecano

Picked 2-0 · Actual 5-2

Top 3 displayed picks are shown for context; settlement uses the Top 1 pick.

Evidence

Why the model leaned this way

Inputs locked before kickoff: recent WDL, average goals for and against, home/away splits, and model attack/defence ranks.

Home team

Barcelona

Last 5 overall

3W · 0D · 2L

5 matches · 2.2 scored · 1.0 conceded per match

Home split

5W · 0D · 0L

5 matches · 2.4 scored · 0.4 conceded per match

Attack rank

7 of 222

Defence rank

35 of 222

Model reference group: PD

Away team

Vallecano

Last 5 overall

2W · 2D · 1L

5 matches · 1.4 scored · 1.0 conceded per match

Away split

2W · 1D · 2L

5 matches · 1.2 scored · 1.4 conceded per match

Attack rank

148 of 222

Defence rank

57 of 222

Model reference group: PD