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Informational only — not betting advice.
PL·Premier League

Aston Villa vs Arsenal

Aston Villa

vs

Arsenal

Mon, 31 Aug 2026 19:00:00 GMT·Post-match review

Final

0–1

First published
Model dc-1.2-r20260810T042826ZTue, 25 Aug 2026 22:26:00 GMT
Model dc-1.2-r20260828T173552ZFri, 28 Aug 2026 17:38:44 GMT
Locked at kick-off
Mon, 31 Aug 2026 19:00:00 GMT
Settled after the final whistle
Tue, 01 Sep 2026 11:36:17 GMT

Four markets

Probability view

1X2

Match result

WIN
Home
21%
Draw
26%
Away
53%

Picked Away · Actual Away

O/U 2.5

Total goals

WIN

Over 2.5

46%

Under 2.5

Probabilities describe model uncertainty, not certainty. Correct-score settlement uses the Top 1 pick. Predictions are informational only and are not betting advice.

54%

Picked Under 2.5 · Actual Under 2.5

BTTS

Both teams to score

LOSS

Yes

54%

No

46%

Picked Yes · Actual No

Correct score

Top 3

WIN
  1. #10-112%
  2. #21-112%
  3. #30-210%
Score probability field for Aston Villa versus Arsenal

Picked 0-1 · Actual 0-1

Top 3 displayed picks are shown for context; settlement uses the Top 1 pick.

Evidence

Why the model leaned this way

Inputs locked before kickoff: recent WDL, average goals for and against, home/away splits, and model attack/defence ranks.

Home team

Aston Villa

Last 5 overall

2W · 1D · 2L

5 matches · 1.8 scored · 2.2 conceded per match

Home split

3W · 0D · 2L

5 matches · 2.4 scored · 2.2 conceded per match

Attack rank

21 of 222

Defence rank

25 of 222

Model reference group: PL

Away team

Arsenal

Last 5 overall

4W · 0D · 1L

5 matches · 2.0 scored · 1.0 conceded per match

Away split

2W · 1D · 2L

5 matches · 1.6 scored · 1.6 conceded per match

Attack rank

6 of 222

Defence rank

7 of 222

Model reference group: PL