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Informational only — not betting advice.
FL1·Ligue 1

Rennes vs Le Mans

Rennes

vs

Le Mans

Sun, 30 Aug 2026 15:15:00 GMT·Post-match review

Final

3–2

Away cold start
First published
Model dc-1.2-r20260810T042826ZSun, 23 Aug 2026 22:21:09 GMT
Model dc-1.2-r20260828T173552ZFri, 28 Aug 2026 17:38:44 GMT
Locked at kick-off
Sun, 30 Aug 2026 15:15:00 GMT
Settled after the final whistle
Mon, 31 Aug 2026 00:32:49 GMT

Four markets

Probability view

1X2

Match result

WIN
Home
70%
Draw
18%
Away
12%

Picked Home · Actual Home

O/U 2.5

Total goals

WIN

Over 2.5

66%

Under 2.5

Probabilities describe model uncertainty, not certainty. Correct-score settlement uses the Top 1 pick. Predictions are informational only and are not betting advice.

34%

Picked Over 2.5 · Actual Over 2.5

BTTS

Both teams to score

WIN

Yes

57%

No

43%

Picked Yes · Actual Yes

Correct score

Top 3

LOSS
  1. #12-010%
  2. #22-19%
  3. #33-08%
Score probability field for Rennes versus Le Mans

Picked 2-0 · Actual 3-2

Top 3 displayed picks are shown for context; settlement uses the Top 1 pick.

Evidence

Why the model leaned this way

Inputs locked before kickoff: recent WDL, average goals for and against, home/away splits, and model attack/defence ranks.

Home team

Rennes

Last 5 overall

2W · 1D · 2L

5 matches · 1.8 scored · 2.2 conceded per match

Home split

3W · 2D · 0L

5 matches · 1.6 scored · 1.0 conceded per match

Attack rank

34 of 222

Defence rank

90 of 222

Model reference group: FL1

Away team

Le Mans

Cold start

Last 5 overall

0W · 1D · 0L

1 matches · 2.0 scored · 2.0 conceded per match

Away split

0W · 0D · 0L

0 matches · — scored · — conceded per match

Attack rank

144 of 222

Defence rank

165 of 222

Model reference group: FL1