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Informational only — not betting advice.
PD·La Liga

Real Madrid vs Malaga

Real Madrid

vs

Malaga

Sun, 30 Aug 2026 15:00:00 GMT·Post-match review

Final

4–0

Away cold start
First published
Model dc-1.2-r20260810T042826ZSun, 23 Aug 2026 22:21:09 GMT
Model dc-1.2-r20260828T173552ZFri, 28 Aug 2026 17:38:44 GMT
Locked at kick-off
Sun, 30 Aug 2026 15:00:00 GMT
Settled after the final whistle
Mon, 31 Aug 2026 00:32:49 GMT

Four markets

Probability view

1X2

Match result

WIN
Home
84%
Draw
12%
Away
4%

Picked Home · Actual Home

O/U 2.5

Total goals

WIN

Over 2.5

64%

Under 2.5

Probabilities describe model uncertainty, not certainty. Correct-score settlement uses the Top 1 pick. Predictions are informational only and are not betting advice.

36%

Picked Over 2.5 · Actual Over 2.5

BTTS

Both teams to score

WIN

Yes

48%

No

52%

Picked No · Actual No

Correct score

Top 3

LOSS
  1. #12-014%
  2. #23-013%
  3. #31-010%
Score probability field for Real Madrid versus Malaga

Picked 2-0 · Actual 4-0

Top 3 displayed picks are shown for context; settlement uses the Top 1 pick.

Evidence

Why the model leaned this way

Inputs locked before kickoff: recent WDL, average goals for and against, home/away splits, and model attack/defence ranks.

Home team

Real Madrid

Last 5 overall

5W · 0D · 0L

5 matches · 2.6 scored · 0.8 conceded per match

Home split

4W · 1D · 0L

5 matches · 2.6 scored · 1.0 conceded per match

Attack rank

12 of 222

Defence rank

22 of 222

Model reference group: PD

Away team

Malaga

Cold start

Last 5 overall

0W · 1D · 4L

5 matches · 0.4 scored · 2.2 conceded per match

Away split

0W · 0D · 5L

5 matches · 0.8 scored · 2.4 conceded per match

Attack rank

192 of 222

Defence rank

126 of 222

Model reference group: PD