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Informational only — not betting advice.
FL1·Ligue 1

Monaco vs Marseille

Monaco

vs

Marseille

Sun, 30 Aug 2026 18:45:00 GMT·Post-match review

Final

2–0

First published
Model dc-1.2-r20260810T042826ZSun, 23 Aug 2026 22:21:09 GMT
Model dc-1.2-r20260828T173552ZFri, 28 Aug 2026 17:38:44 GMT
Locked at kick-off
Sun, 30 Aug 2026 18:45:00 GMT
Settled after the final whistle
Tue, 01 Sep 2026 01:17:33 GMT

Four markets

Probability view

1X2

Match result

WIN
Home
42%
Draw
23%
Away
35%

Picked Home · Actual Home

O/U 2.5

Total goals

LOSS

Over 2.5

67%

Under 2.5

Probabilities describe model uncertainty, not certainty. Correct-score settlement uses the Top 1 pick. Predictions are informational only and are not betting advice.

33%

Picked Over 2.5 · Actual Under 2.5

BTTS

Both teams to score

LOSS

Yes

64%

No

36%

Picked Yes · Actual No

Correct score

Top 3

LOSS
  1. #11-110%
  2. #22-18%
  3. #31-28%
Score probability field for Monaco versus Marseille

Picked 1-1 · Actual 2-0

Top 3 displayed picks are shown for context; settlement uses the Top 1 pick.

Evidence

Why the model leaned this way

Inputs locked before kickoff: recent WDL, average goals for and against, home/away splits, and model attack/defence ranks.

Home team

Monaco

Last 5 overall

2W · 1D · 2L

5 matches · 1.8 scored · 1.8 conceded per match

Home split

3W · 1D · 1L

5 matches · 1.6 scored · 0.8 conceded per match

Attack rank

30 of 222

Defence rank

78 of 222

Model reference group: FL1

Away team

Marseille

Last 5 overall

3W · 1D · 1L

5 matches · 1.8 scored · 1.0 conceded per match

Away split

2W · 0D · 3L

5 matches · 0.6 scored · 1.4 conceded per match

Attack rank

28 of 222

Defence rank

65 of 222

Model reference group: FL1