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Informational only — not betting advice.
SA·Serie A

Lazio vs Genoa

Lazio

vs

Genoa

Sun, 30 Aug 2026 18:45:00 GMT·Post-match review

Final

1–0

First published
Model dc-1.2-r20260810T042826ZSun, 23 Aug 2026 22:21:09 GMT
Model dc-1.2-r20260828T173552ZFri, 28 Aug 2026 17:38:44 GMT
Locked at kick-off
Sun, 30 Aug 2026 18:45:00 GMT
Settled after the final whistle
Tue, 01 Sep 2026 01:17:33 GMT

Four markets

Probability view

1X2

Match result

WIN
Home
48%
Draw
29%
Away
23%

Picked Home · Actual Home

O/U 2.5

Total goals

WIN

Over 2.5

38%

Under 2.5

Probabilities describe model uncertainty, not certainty. Correct-score settlement uses the Top 1 pick. Predictions are informational only and are not betting advice.

62%

Picked Under 2.5 · Actual Under 2.5

BTTS

Both teams to score

LOSS

Yes

51%

No

49%

Picked Yes · Actual No

Correct score

Top 3

WIN
  1. #11-014%
  2. #21-113%
  3. #30-011%
Score probability field for Lazio versus Genoa

Picked 1-0 · Actual 1-0

Top 3 displayed picks are shown for context; settlement uses the Top 1 pick.

Evidence

Why the model leaned this way

Inputs locked before kickoff: recent WDL, average goals for and against, home/away splits, and model attack/defence ranks.

Home team

Lazio

Last 5 overall

3W · 0D · 2L

5 matches · 1.0 scored · 1.4 conceded per match

Home split

2W · 2D · 1L

5 matches · 1.4 scored · 1.6 conceded per match

Attack rank

89 of 222

Defence rank

56 of 222

Model reference group: SA

Away team

Genoa

Last 5 overall

0W · 2D · 3L

5 matches · 0.2 scored · 1.0 conceded per match

Away split

1W · 2D · 2L

5 matches · 0.4 scored · 0.8 conceded per match

Attack rank

137 of 222

Defence rank

116 of 222

Model reference group: SA