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Informational only — not betting advice.
PL·Premier League

Chelsea vs Brighton

Chelsea

vs

Brighton

Sun, 30 Aug 2026 13:00:00 GMT·Post-match review

Final

4–3

First published
Model dc-1.2-r20260810T042826ZSun, 23 Aug 2026 22:21:09 GMT
Model dc-1.2-r20260828T173552ZFri, 28 Aug 2026 17:38:44 GMT
Locked at kick-off
Sun, 30 Aug 2026 13:00:00 GMT
Settled after the final whistle
Mon, 31 Aug 2026 00:32:49 GMT

Four markets

Probability view

1X2

Match result

WIN
Home
42%
Draw
25%
Away
32%

Picked Home · Actual Home

O/U 2.5

Total goals

WIN

Over 2.5

57%

Under 2.5

Probabilities describe model uncertainty, not certainty. Correct-score settlement uses the Top 1 pick. Predictions are informational only and are not betting advice.

43%

Picked Over 2.5 · Actual Over 2.5

BTTS

Both teams to score

WIN

Yes

59%

No

41%

Picked Yes · Actual Yes

Correct score

Top 3

LOSS
  1. #11-112%
  2. #22-19%
  3. #31-28%
Score probability field for Chelsea versus Brighton

Picked 1-1 · Actual 4-3

Top 3 displayed picks are shown for context; settlement uses the Top 1 pick.

Evidence

Why the model leaned this way

Inputs locked before kickoff: recent WDL, average goals for and against, home/away splits, and model attack/defence ranks.

Home team

Chelsea

Last 5 overall

2W · 1D · 2L

5 matches · 1.6 scored · 1.8 conceded per match

Home split

1W · 0D · 4L

5 matches · 0.6 scored · 2.2 conceded per match

Attack rank

15 of 222

Defence rank

32 of 222

Model reference group: PL

Away team

Brighton

Last 5 overall

2W · 0D · 3L

5 matches · 1.6 scored · 1.4 conceded per match

Away split

2W · 1D · 2L

5 matches · 1.2 scored · 1.2 conceded per match

Attack rank

19 of 222

Defence rank

16 of 222

Model reference group: PL