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Informational only — not betting advice.
ELC·Championship

Southampton vs Millwall

Southampton

vs

Millwall

Sat, 29 Aug 2026 14:00:00 GMT·Post-match review

Final

5–1

First published
Model dc-1.2-r20260810T042826ZSat, 22 Aug 2026 22:21:50 GMT
Model dc-1.2-r20260828T173552ZFri, 28 Aug 2026 17:38:44 GMT
Locked at kick-off
Sat, 29 Aug 2026 14:00:00 GMT
Settled after the final whistle
Sun, 30 Aug 2026 00:07:29 GMT

Four markets

Probability view

1X2

Match result

WIN
Home
43%
Draw
27%
Away
30%

Picked Home · Actual Home

O/U 2.5

Total goals

LOSS

Over 2.5

50%

Under 2.5

Probabilities describe model uncertainty, not certainty. Correct-score settlement uses the Top 1 pick. Predictions are informational only and are not betting advice.

50%

Picked Under 2.5 · Actual Over 2.5

BTTS

Both teams to score

WIN

Yes

56%

No

44%

Picked Yes · Actual Yes

Correct score

Top 3

LOSS
  1. #11-113%
  2. #21-010%
  3. #32-19%
Score probability field for Southampton versus Millwall

Picked 1-1 · Actual 5-1

Top 3 displayed picks are shown for context; settlement uses the Top 1 pick.

Evidence

Why the model leaned this way

Inputs locked before kickoff: recent WDL, average goals for and against, home/away splits, and model attack/defence ranks.

Home team

Southampton

Last 5 overall

2W · 2D · 1L

5 matches · 2.2 scored · 1.6 conceded per match

Home split

3W · 2D · 0L

5 matches · 2.4 scored · 1.2 conceded per match

Attack rank

50 of 222

Defence rank

115 of 222

Model reference group: ELC

Away team

Millwall

Last 5 overall

4W · 1D · 0L

5 matches · 2.2 scored · 0.4 conceded per match

Away split

3W · 2D · 0L

5 matches · 1.6 scored · 0.6 conceded per match

Attack rank

94 of 222

Defence rank

48 of 222

Model reference group: ELC