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Informational only — not betting advice.
PD·La Liga

Sevilla vs Ath Madrid

Sevilla

vs

Ath Madrid

Sat, 29 Aug 2026 19:30:00 GMT·Post-match review

Final

1–3

First published
Model dc-1.2-r20260810T042826ZSat, 22 Aug 2026 22:21:50 GMT
Model dc-1.2-r20260828T173552ZFri, 28 Aug 2026 17:38:44 GMT
Locked at kick-off
Sat, 29 Aug 2026 19:30:00 GMT
Settled after the final whistle
Sun, 30 Aug 2026 00:07:29 GMT

Four markets

Probability view

1X2

Match result

WIN
Home
25%
Draw
24%
Away
51%

Picked Away · Actual Away

O/U 2.5

Total goals

WIN

Over 2.5

56%

Under 2.5

Probabilities describe model uncertainty, not certainty. Correct-score settlement uses the Top 1 pick. Predictions are informational only and are not betting advice.

44%

Picked Over 2.5 · Actual Over 2.5

BTTS

Both teams to score

WIN

Yes

58%

No

42%

Picked Yes · Actual Yes

Correct score

Top 3

LOSS
  1. #11-111%
  2. #21-210%
  3. #30-19%
Score probability field for Sevilla versus Ath Madrid

Picked 1-1 · Actual 1-3

Top 3 displayed picks are shown for context; settlement uses the Top 1 pick.

Evidence

Why the model leaned this way

Inputs locked before kickoff: recent WDL, average goals for and against, home/away splits, and model attack/defence ranks.

Home team

Sevilla

Last 5 overall

3W · 0D · 2L

5 matches · 1.6 scored · 1.2 conceded per match

Home split

4W · 0D · 1L

5 matches · 1.4 scored · 0.8 conceded per match

Attack rank

102 of 222

Defence rank

124 of 222

Model reference group: PD

Away team

Ath Madrid

Last 5 overall

3W · 1D · 1L

5 matches · 1.6 scored · 1.6 conceded per match

Away split

2W · 0D · 3L

5 matches · 1.4 scored · 2.0 conceded per match

Attack rank

31 of 222

Defence rank

49 of 222

Model reference group: PD