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Informational only — not betting advice.
FL1·Ligue 1

Lyon vs Le Havre

Lyon

vs

Le Havre

Sat, 29 Aug 2026 18:45:00 GMT·Post-match review

Final

1–1

First published
Model dc-1.2-r20260810T042826ZSat, 22 Aug 2026 22:21:50 GMT
Model dc-1.2-r20260828T173552ZFri, 28 Aug 2026 17:38:44 GMT
Locked at kick-off
Sat, 29 Aug 2026 18:45:00 GMT
Settled after the final whistle
Sun, 30 Aug 2026 00:07:29 GMT

Four markets

Probability view

1X2

Match result

LOSS
Home
62%
Draw
23%
Away
15%

Picked Home · Actual Draw

O/U 2.5

Total goals

LOSS

Over 2.5

51%

Under 2.5

Probabilities describe model uncertainty, not certainty. Correct-score settlement uses the Top 1 pick. Predictions are informational only and are not betting advice.

49%

Picked Over 2.5 · Actual Under 2.5

BTTS

Both teams to score

WIN

Yes

53%

No

47%

Picked Yes · Actual Yes

Correct score

Top 3

LOSS
  1. #11-012%
  2. #22-012%
  3. #31-111%
Score probability field for Lyon versus Le Havre

Picked 1-0 · Actual 1-1

Top 3 displayed picks are shown for context; settlement uses the Top 1 pick.

Evidence

Why the model leaned this way

Inputs locked before kickoff: recent WDL, average goals for and against, home/away splits, and model attack/defence ranks.

Home team

Lyon

Last 5 overall

3W · 0D · 2L

5 matches · 2.0 scored · 2.0 conceded per match

Home split

3W · 0D · 2L

5 matches · 2.0 scored · 2.0 conceded per match

Attack rank

39 of 222

Defence rank

55 of 222

Model reference group: FL1

Away team

Le Havre

Last 5 overall

1W · 2D · 2L

5 matches · 1.4 scored · 1.4 conceded per match

Away split

1W · 3D · 1L

5 matches · 1.4 scored · 1.2 conceded per match

Attack rank

144 of 222

Defence rank

91 of 222

Model reference group: FL1