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Informational only — not betting advice.
FL1·Ligue 1

Lorient vs Troyes

Lorient

vs

Troyes

Sat, 29 Aug 2026 18:45:00 GMT·Post-match review

Final

1–2

Away cold start
First published
Model dc-1.2-r20260810T042826ZSat, 22 Aug 2026 22:21:50 GMT
Model dc-1.2-r20260828T173552ZFri, 28 Aug 2026 17:38:44 GMT
Locked at kick-off
Sat, 29 Aug 2026 18:45:00 GMT
Settled after the final whistle
Sun, 30 Aug 2026 00:07:29 GMT

Four markets

Probability view

1X2

Match result

LOSS
Home
59%
Draw
24%
Away
17%

Picked Home · Actual Away

O/U 2.5

Total goals

LOSS

Over 2.5

50%

Under 2.5

Probabilities describe model uncertainty, not certainty. Correct-score settlement uses the Top 1 pick. Predictions are informational only and are not betting advice.

50%

Picked Under 2.5 · Actual Over 2.5

BTTS

Both teams to score

WIN

Yes

54%

No

46%

Picked Yes · Actual Yes

Correct score

Top 3

LOSS
  1. #11-012%
  2. #22-011%
  3. #31-111%
Score probability field for Lorient versus Troyes

Picked 1-0 · Actual 1-2

Top 3 displayed picks are shown for context; settlement uses the Top 1 pick.

Evidence

Why the model leaned this way

Inputs locked before kickoff: recent WDL, average goals for and against, home/away splits, and model attack/defence ranks.

Home team

Lorient

Last 5 overall

1W · 2D · 2L

5 matches · 1.6 scored · 1.4 conceded per match

Home split

2W · 1D · 2L

5 matches · 1.4 scored · 1.4 conceded per match

Attack rank

71 of 222

Defence rank

87 of 222

Model reference group: FL1

Away team

Troyes

Cold start

Last 5 overall

0W · 3D · 2L

5 matches · 0.6 scored · 1.6 conceded per match

Away split

0W · 1D · 4L

5 matches · 0.8 scored · 2.4 conceded per match

Attack rank

161 of 222

Defence rank

150 of 222

Model reference group: FL1