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Informational only — not betting advice.
BL1·Bundesliga

Elversberg vs Leverkusen

Elversberg

vs

Leverkusen

Sat, 29 Aug 2026 13:30:00 GMT·Post-match review

Final

3–2

Home cold start
First published
Model dc-1.2-r20260810T042826ZSat, 22 Aug 2026 22:21:50 GMT
Model dc-1.2-r20260828T173552ZFri, 28 Aug 2026 17:38:44 GMT
Locked at kick-off
Sat, 29 Aug 2026 13:30:00 GMT
Settled after the final whistle
Sun, 30 Aug 2026 00:07:29 GMT

Four markets

Probability view

1X2

Match result

LOSS
Home
17%
Draw
22%
Away
61%

Picked Away · Actual Home

O/U 2.5

Total goals

WIN

Over 2.5

56%

Under 2.5

Probabilities describe model uncertainty, not certainty. Correct-score settlement uses the Top 1 pick. Predictions are informational only and are not betting advice.

44%

Picked Over 2.5 · Actual Over 2.5

BTTS

Both teams to score

WIN

Yes

56%

No

44%

Picked Yes · Actual Yes

Correct score

Top 3

LOSS
  1. #11-111%
  2. #20-210%
  3. #30-110%
Score probability field for Elversberg versus Leverkusen

Picked 1-1 · Actual 3-2

Top 3 displayed picks are shown for context; settlement uses the Top 1 pick.

Evidence

Why the model leaned this way

Inputs locked before kickoff: recent WDL, average goals for and against, home/away splits, and model attack/defence ranks.

Home team

Elversberg

Cold start

Last 5 overall

0W · 0D · 0L

0 matches · — scored · — conceded per match

Home split

0W · 0D · 0L

0 matches · — scored · — conceded per match

Attack rank

131 of 222

Defence rank

139 of 222

Model reference group: BL1

Away team

Leverkusen

Last 5 overall

2W · 1D · 2L

5 matches · 1.8 scored · 1.6 conceded per match

Away split

2W · 1D · 2L

5 matches · 1.4 scored · 1.8 conceded per match

Attack rank

27 of 222

Defence rank

46 of 222

Model reference group: BL1