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Informational only — not betting advice.
BL1·Bundesliga

Dortmund vs Hamburg

Dortmund

vs

Hamburg

Sat, 29 Aug 2026 16:30:00 GMT·Post-match review

Final

2–0

First published
Model dc-1.2-r20260810T042826ZSat, 22 Aug 2026 22:21:50 GMT
Model dc-1.2-r20260828T173552ZFri, 28 Aug 2026 17:38:44 GMT
Locked at kick-off
Sat, 29 Aug 2026 16:30:00 GMT
Settled after the final whistle
Sun, 30 Aug 2026 00:07:29 GMT

Four markets

Probability view

1X2

Match result

WIN
Home
69%
Draw
19%
Away
12%

Picked Home · Actual Home

O/U 2.5

Total goals

LOSS

Over 2.5

61%

Under 2.5

Probabilities describe model uncertainty, not certainty. Correct-score settlement uses the Top 1 pick. Predictions are informational only and are not betting advice.

39%

Picked Over 2.5 · Actual Under 2.5

BTTS

Both teams to score

LOSS

Yes

55%

No

45%

Picked Yes · Actual No

Correct score

Top 3

WIN
  1. #12-011%
  2. #22-110%
  3. #31-010%
Score probability field for Dortmund versus Hamburg

Picked 2-0 · Actual 2-0

Top 3 displayed picks are shown for context; settlement uses the Top 1 pick.

Evidence

Why the model leaned this way

Inputs locked before kickoff: recent WDL, average goals for and against, home/away splits, and model attack/defence ranks.

Home team

Dortmund

Last 5 overall

3W · 0D · 2L

5 matches · 2.0 scored · 1.0 conceded per match

Home split

4W · 0D · 1L

5 matches · 2.4 scored · 1.0 conceded per match

Attack rank

20 of 222

Defence rank

43 of 222

Model reference group: BL1

Away team

Hamburg

Last 5 overall

2W · 1D · 2L

5 matches · 1.6 scored · 1.8 conceded per match

Away split

1W · 1D · 3L

5 matches · 1.2 scored · 2.4 conceded per match

Attack rank

104 of 222

Defence rank

99 of 222

Model reference group: BL1