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Informational only — not betting advice.
ELC·Championship

Bolton vs Lincoln City

Bolton

vs

Lincoln City

Sat, 29 Aug 2026 14:00:00 GMT·Post-match review

Final

0–1

Both cold start
First published
Model dc-1.2-r20260810T042826ZSat, 22 Aug 2026 22:21:50 GMT
Model dc-1.2-r20260828T173552ZFri, 28 Aug 2026 17:38:44 GMT
Locked at kick-off
Sat, 29 Aug 2026 14:00:00 GMT
Settled after the final whistle
Sun, 30 Aug 2026 00:07:29 GMT

Four markets

Probability view

1X2

Match result

LOSS
Home
51%
Draw
27%
Away
22%

Picked Home · Actual Away

O/U 2.5

Total goals

WIN

Over 2.5

43%

Under 2.5

Probabilities describe model uncertainty, not certainty. Correct-score settlement uses the Top 1 pick. Predictions are informational only and are not betting advice.

57%

Picked Under 2.5 · Actual Under 2.5

BTTS

Both teams to score

LOSS

Yes

53%

No

47%

Picked Yes · Actual No

Correct score

Top 3

LOSS
  1. #11-013%
  2. #21-113%
  3. #32-010%
Score probability field for Bolton versus Lincoln City

Picked 1-0 · Actual 0-1

Top 3 displayed picks are shown for context; settlement uses the Top 1 pick.

Evidence

Why the model leaned this way

Inputs locked before kickoff: recent WDL, average goals for and against, home/away splits, and model attack/defence ranks.

Home team

Bolton

Cold start

Last 5 overall

1W · 1D · 3L

5 matches · 0.4 scored · 1.0 conceded per match

Home split

1W · 0D · 4L

5 matches · 0.6 scored · 1.6 conceded per match

Attack rank

119 of 222

Defence rank

54 of 222

Model reference group: ELC

Away team

Lincoln City

Cold start

Last 5 overall

0W · 0D · 2L

2 matches · 1.0 scored · 2.5 conceded per match

Away split

0W · 0D · 1L

1 matches · 1.0 scored · 2.0 conceded per match

Attack rank

115 of 222

Defence rank

150 of 222

Model reference group: ELC