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Informational only — not betting advice.
FL1·Ligue 1

Lille vs Paris SG

Lille

vs

Paris SG

Fri, 28 Aug 2026 18:45:00 GMT·Post-match review

Final

2–2

First published
Model dc-1.2-r20260810T042826ZFri, 21 Aug 2026 22:23:13 GMT
Model dc-1.2-r20260828T173552ZFri, 28 Aug 2026 17:38:44 GMT
Locked at kick-off
Fri, 28 Aug 2026 18:45:00 GMT
Settled after the final whistle
Sat, 29 Aug 2026 03:40:42 GMT

Four markets

Probability view

1X2

Match result

LOSS
Home
24%
Draw
25%
Away
50%

Picked Away · Actual Draw

O/U 2.5

Total goals

WIN

Over 2.5

52%

Under 2.5

Probabilities describe model uncertainty, not certainty. Correct-score settlement uses the Top 1 pick. Predictions are informational only and are not betting advice.

48%

Picked Over 2.5 · Actual Over 2.5

BTTS

Both teams to score

WIN

Yes

57%

No

43%

Picked Yes · Actual Yes

Correct score

Top 3

LOSS
  1. #11-112%
  2. #20-110%
  3. #31-210%
Score probability field for Lille versus Paris SG

Picked 1-1 · Actual 2-2

Top 3 displayed picks are shown for context; settlement uses the Top 1 pick.

Evidence

Why the model leaned this way

Inputs locked before kickoff: recent WDL, average goals for and against, home/away splits, and model attack/defence ranks.

Home team

Lille

Last 5 overall

3W · 1D · 1L

5 matches · 1.0 scored · 0.6 conceded per match

Home split

1W · 3D · 1L

5 matches · 1.0 scored · 0.8 conceded per match

Attack rank

56 of 222

Defence rank

20 of 222

Model reference group: FL1

Away team

Paris SG

Last 5 overall

3W · 1D · 1L

5 matches · 2.0 scored · 1.4 conceded per match

Away split

2W · 2D · 1L

5 matches · 1.8 scored · 1.0 conceded per match

Attack rank

4 of 222

Defence rank

12 of 222

Model reference group: FL1