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Informational only — not betting advice.
PD·La Liga

Alaves vs Villarreal

Alaves

vs

Villarreal

Fri, 28 Aug 2026 19:30:00 GMT·Post-match review

Final

1–0

First published
Model dc-1.2-r20260810T042826ZFri, 21 Aug 2026 22:23:13 GMT
Model dc-1.2-r20260828T173552ZFri, 28 Aug 2026 17:38:44 GMT
Locked at kick-off
Fri, 28 Aug 2026 19:30:00 GMT
Settled after the final whistle
Sat, 29 Aug 2026 03:40:42 GMT

Four markets

Probability view

1X2

Match result

LOSS
Home
33%
Draw
25%
Away
42%

Picked Away · Actual Home

O/U 2.5

Total goals

LOSS

Over 2.5

57%

Under 2.5

Probabilities describe model uncertainty, not certainty. Correct-score settlement uses the Top 1 pick. Predictions are informational only and are not betting advice.

43%

Picked Over 2.5 · Actual Under 2.5

BTTS

Both teams to score

LOSS

Yes

59%

No

41%

Picked Yes · Actual No

Correct score

Top 3

LOSS
  1. #11-112%
  2. #21-29%
  3. #32-18%
Score probability field for Alaves versus Villarreal

Picked 1-1 · Actual 1-0

Top 3 displayed picks are shown for context; settlement uses the Top 1 pick.

Evidence

Why the model leaned this way

Inputs locked before kickoff: recent WDL, average goals for and against, home/away splits, and model attack/defence ranks.

Home team

Alaves

Last 5 overall

3W · 1D · 1L

5 matches · 1.4 scored · 0.6 conceded per match

Home split

3W · 0D · 2L

5 matches · 1.8 scored · 1.4 conceded per match

Attack rank

119 of 222

Defence rank

94 of 222

Model reference group: PD

Away team

Villarreal

Last 5 overall

1W · 2D · 2L

5 matches · 2.2 scored · 2.0 conceded per match

Away split

0W · 4D · 1L

5 matches · 1.2 scored · 1.6 conceded per match

Attack rank

40 of 222

Defence rank

102 of 222

Model reference group: PD