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Informational only — not betting advice.
PD·La Liga

Barcelona vs Ath Bilbao

Barcelona

vs

Ath Bilbao

Thu, 27 Aug 2026 19:00:00 GMT·Post-match review

Final

2–0

First published
Model dc-1.2-r20260810T042826ZFri, 21 Aug 2026 22:23:13 GMT
Locked at kick-off
Thu, 27 Aug 2026 19:00:00 GMT
Settled after the final whistle
Fri, 28 Aug 2026 05:59:07 GMT

Four markets

Probability view

1X2

Match result

WIN
Home
75%
Draw
15%
Away
9%

Picked Home · Actual Home

O/U 2.5

Total goals

LOSS

Over 2.5

69%

Under 2.5

Probabilities describe model uncertainty, not certainty. Correct-score settlement uses the Top 1 pick. Predictions are informational only and are not betting advice.

31%

Picked Over 2.5 · Actual Under 2.5

BTTS

Both teams to score

LOSS

Yes

56%

No

44%

Picked Yes · Actual No

Correct score

Top 3

WIN
  1. #12-010%
  2. #23-09%
  3. #32-19%
Score probability field for Barcelona versus Ath Bilbao

Picked 2-0 · Actual 2-0

Top 3 displayed picks are shown for context; settlement uses the Top 1 pick.

Evidence

Why the model leaned this way

Inputs locked before kickoff: recent WDL, average goals for and against, home/away splits, and model attack/defence ranks.

Home team

Barcelona

Last 5 overall

3W · 0D · 2L

5 matches · 1.6 scored · 1.2 conceded per match

Home split

4W · 0D · 1L

5 matches · 2.0 scored · 0.8 conceded per match

Attack rank

4 of 204

Defence rank

30 of 204

Model reference group: PD

Away team

Ath Bilbao

Last 5 overall

1W · 1D · 3L

5 matches · 1.4 scored · 2.0 conceded per match

Away split

1W · 0D · 4L

5 matches · 1.6 scored · 2.6 conceded per match

Attack rank

97 of 204

Defence rank

56 of 204

Model reference group: PD