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Informational only — not betting advice.
PD·La Liga

Real Madrid vs Sociedad

Real Madrid

vs

Sociedad

Wed, 26 Aug 2026 19:00:00 GMT·Post-match review

Final

4–1

First published
Model dc-1.2-r20260810T042826ZWed, 19 Aug 2026 22:23:25 GMT
Locked at kick-off
Wed, 26 Aug 2026 19:00:00 GMT
Settled after the final whistle
Thu, 27 Aug 2026 02:56:27 GMT

Four markets

Probability view

1X2

Match result

WIN
Home
75%
Draw
16%
Away
10%

Picked Home · Actual Home

O/U 2.5

Total goals

WIN

Over 2.5

68%

Under 2.5

Probabilities describe model uncertainty, not certainty. Correct-score settlement uses the Top 1 pick. Predictions are informational only and are not betting advice.

32%

Picked Over 2.5 · Actual Over 2.5

BTTS

Both teams to score

WIN

Yes

56%

No

44%

Picked Yes · Actual Yes

Correct score

Top 3

LOSS
  1. #12-010%
  2. #22-19%
  3. #33-09%
Score probability field for Real Madrid versus Sociedad

Picked 2-0 · Actual 5-1

Top 3 displayed picks are shown for context; settlement uses the Top 1 pick.

Evidence

Why the model leaned this way

Inputs locked before kickoff: recent WDL, average goals for and against, home/away splits, and model attack/defence ranks.

Home team

Real Madrid

Last 5 overall

4W · 0D · 1L

5 matches · 1.8 scored · 0.8 conceded per match

Home split

3W · 1D · 1L

5 matches · 2.0 scored · 1.2 conceded per match

Attack rank

6 of 204

Defence rank

20 of 204

Model reference group: PD

Away team

Sociedad

Last 5 overall

0W · 3D · 2L

5 matches · 1.4 scored · 1.8 conceded per match

Away split

0W · 3D · 2L

5 matches · 1.2 scored · 1.8 conceded per match

Attack rank

68 of 204

Defence rank

106 of 204

Model reference group: PD