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Informational only — not betting advice.
SA·Serie A

Roma vs Fiorentina

Roma

vs

Fiorentina

Mon, 24 Aug 2026 18:45:00 GMT·Post-match review

Final

4–0

First published
Model dc-1.2-r20260810T042826ZMon, 17 Aug 2026 22:22:49 GMT
Locked at kick-off
Mon, 24 Aug 2026 18:45:00 GMT
Settled after the final whistle
Tue, 25 Aug 2026 06:34:02 GMT

Four markets

Probability view

1X2

Match result

WIN
Home
55%
Draw
25%
Away
19%

Picked Home · Actual Home

O/U 2.5

Total goals

LOSS

Over 2.5

46%

Under 2.5

Probabilities describe model uncertainty, not certainty. Correct-score settlement uses the Top 1 pick. Predictions are informational only and are not betting advice.

54%

Picked Under 2.5 · Actual Over 2.5

BTTS

Both teams to score

LOSS

Yes

53%

No

47%

Picked Yes · Actual No

Correct score

Top 3

LOSS
  1. #11-013%
  2. #21-112%
  3. #32-011%
Score probability field for Roma versus Fiorentina

Picked 1-0 · Actual 4-0

Top 3 displayed picks are shown for context; settlement uses the Top 1 pick.

Evidence

Why the model leaned this way

Inputs locked before kickoff: recent WDL, average goals for and against, home/away splits, and model attack/defence ranks.

Home team

Roma

Last 5 overall

5W · 0D · 0L

5 matches · 2.6 scored · 0.4 conceded per match

Home split

4W · 1D · 0L

5 matches · 2.2 scored · 0.2 conceded per match

Attack rank

34 of 204

Defence rank

23 of 204

Model reference group: SA

Away team

Fiorentina

Last 5 overall

1W · 3D · 1L

5 matches · 0.6 scored · 1.0 conceded per match

Away split

3W · 1D · 1L

5 matches · 1.6 scored · 1.2 conceded per match

Attack rank

78 of 204

Defence rank

83 of 204

Model reference group: SA