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Informational only — not betting advice.
FL1·Ligue 1

Rennes vs Paris SG

Rennes

vs

Paris SG

Sun, 23 Aug 2026 18:45:00 GMT·Post-match review

Final

2–2

First published
Model dc-1.2-r20260810T042826ZSun, 16 Aug 2026 22:20:10 GMT
Locked at kick-off
Sun, 23 Aug 2026 18:45:00 GMT
Settled after the final whistle
Sun, 23 Aug 2026 22:21:02 GMT

Four markets

Probability view

1X2

Match result

LOSS
Home
72%
Draw
16%
Away
12%

Picked Home · Actual Draw

O/U 2.5

Total goals

WIN

Over 2.5

72%

Under 2.5

Probabilities describe model uncertainty, not certainty. Correct-score settlement uses the Top 1 pick. Predictions are informational only and are not betting advice.

28%

Picked Over 2.5 · Actual Over 2.5

BTTS

Both teams to score

WIN

Yes

59%

No

41%

Picked Yes · Actual Yes

Correct score

Top 3

LOSS
  1. #12-19%
  2. #22-08%
  3. #33-18%
Score probability field for Rennes versus Paris SG

Picked 2-1 · Actual 2-2

Top 3 displayed picks are shown for context; settlement uses the Top 1 pick.

Evidence

Why the model leaned this way

Inputs locked before kickoff: recent WDL, average goals for and against, home/away splits, and model attack/defence ranks.

Home team

Paris SG

Last 5 overall

3W · 1D · 1L

5 matches · 1.8 scored · 1.2 conceded per match

Home split

4W · 1D · 0L

5 matches · 3.0 scored · 1.8 conceded per match

Attack rank

3 of 204

Defence rank

15 of 204

Model reference group: FL1

Away team

Rennes

Last 5 overall

3W · 0D · 2L

5 matches · 2.0 scored · 1.8 conceded per match

Away split

3W · 0D · 2L

5 matches · 2.8 scored · 2.0 conceded per match

Attack rank

20 of 204

Defence rank

67 of 204

Model reference group: FL1