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Informational only — not betting advice.
PL·Premier League

Newcastle vs Liverpool

Newcastle

vs

Liverpool

Sun, 23 Aug 2026 15:30:00 GMT·Post-match review

Final

2–2

First published
Model dc-1.2-r20260810T042826ZSun, 16 Aug 2026 22:20:10 GMT
Locked at kick-off
Sun, 23 Aug 2026 15:30:00 GMT
Settled after the final whistle
Sun, 23 Aug 2026 22:21:02 GMT

Four markets

Probability view

1X2

Match result

LOSS
Home
34%
Draw
24%
Away
42%

Picked Away · Actual Draw

O/U 2.5

Total goals

WIN

Over 2.5

63%

Under 2.5

Probabilities describe model uncertainty, not certainty. Correct-score settlement uses the Top 1 pick. Predictions are informational only and are not betting advice.

37%

Picked Over 2.5 · Actual Over 2.5

BTTS

Both teams to score

WIN

Yes

61%

No

39%

Picked Yes · Actual Yes

Correct score

Top 3

LOSS
  1. #11-111%
  2. #21-29%
  3. #32-18%
Score probability field for Newcastle versus Liverpool

Picked 1-1 · Actual 2-2

Top 3 displayed picks are shown for context; settlement uses the Top 1 pick.

Evidence

Why the model leaned this way

Inputs locked before kickoff: recent WDL, average goals for and against, home/away splits, and model attack/defence ranks.

Home team

Newcastle

Last 5 overall

2W · 1D · 2L

5 matches · 1.4 scored · 1.2 conceded per match

Home split

2W · 1D · 2L

5 matches · 1.8 scored · 1.4 conceded per match

Attack rank

31 of 204

Defence rank

98 of 204

Model reference group: PL

Away team

Liverpool

Last 5 overall

1W · 2D · 2L

5 matches · 1.8 scored · 2.0 conceded per match

Away split

1W · 0D · 4L

5 matches · 1.4 scored · 2.4 conceded per match

Attack rank

17 of 204

Defence rank

44 of 204

Model reference group: PL