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Informational only — not betting advice.
PD·La Liga

Elche vs Barcelona

Elche

vs

Barcelona

Sun, 23 Aug 2026 19:30:00 GMT·Post-match review

Final

0–5

First published
Model dc-1.2-r20260810T042826ZSun, 16 Aug 2026 22:20:10 GMT
Locked at kick-off
Sun, 23 Aug 2026 19:30:00 GMT
Settled after the final whistle
Sun, 23 Aug 2026 22:21:02 GMT

Four markets

Probability view

1X2

Match result

WIN
Home
17%
Draw
19%
Away
64%

Picked Away · Actual Away

O/U 2.5

Total goals

WIN

Over 2.5

69%

Under 2.5

Probabilities describe model uncertainty, not certainty. Correct-score settlement uses the Top 1 pick. Predictions are informational only and are not betting advice.

31%

Picked Over 2.5 · Actual Over 2.5

BTTS

Both teams to score

LOSS

Yes

61%

No

39%

Picked Yes · Actual No

Correct score

Top 3

LOSS
  1. #11-29%
  2. #21-18%
  3. #30-28%
Score probability field for Elche versus Barcelona

Picked 1-2 · Actual 0-5

Top 3 displayed picks are shown for context; settlement uses the Top 1 pick.

Evidence

Why the model leaned this way

Inputs locked before kickoff: recent WDL, average goals for and against, home/away splits, and model attack/defence ranks.

Home team

Elche

Last 5 overall

1W · 2D · 2L

5 matches · 1.0 scored · 1.4 conceded per match

Home split

4W · 1D · 0L

5 matches · 1.6 scored · 0.8 conceded per match

Attack rank

90 of 204

Defence rank

125 of 204

Model reference group: PD

Away team

Barcelona

Last 5 overall

3W · 0D · 2L

5 matches · 1.6 scored · 1.2 conceded per match

Away split

3W · 0D · 2L

5 matches · 1.4 scored · 1.2 conceded per match

Attack rank

4 of 204

Defence rank

30 of 204

Model reference group: PD