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Informational only — not betting advice.
SA·Serie A

Atalanta vs Sassuolo

Atalanta

vs

Sassuolo

Sun, 23 Aug 2026 18:45:00 GMT·Post-match review

Final

2–1

First published
Model dc-1.2-r20260810T042826ZSun, 16 Aug 2026 22:20:10 GMT
Locked at kick-off
Sun, 23 Aug 2026 18:45:00 GMT
Settled after the final whistle
Sun, 23 Aug 2026 22:21:02 GMT

Four markets

Probability view

1X2

Match result

WIN
Home
60%
Draw
22%
Away
18%

Picked Home · Actual Home

O/U 2.5

Total goals

WIN

Over 2.5

55%

Under 2.5

Probabilities describe model uncertainty, not certainty. Correct-score settlement uses the Top 1 pick. Predictions are informational only and are not betting advice.

45%

Picked Over 2.5 · Actual Over 2.5

BTTS

Both teams to score

WIN

Yes

55%

No

45%

Picked Yes · Actual Yes

Correct score

Top 3

LOSS
  1. #11-111%
  2. #22-010%
  3. #31-010%
Score probability field for Atalanta versus Sassuolo

Picked 1-1 · Actual 2-1

Top 3 displayed picks are shown for context; settlement uses the Top 1 pick.

Evidence

Why the model leaned this way

Inputs locked before kickoff: recent WDL, average goals for and against, home/away splits, and model attack/defence ranks.

Home team

Atalanta

Last 5 overall

1W · 2D · 2L

5 matches · 1.2 scored · 1.4 conceded per match

Home split

1W · 1D · 3L

5 matches · 0.4 scored · 1.6 conceded per match

Attack rank

35 of 204

Defence rank

41 of 204

Model reference group: SA

Away team

Sassuolo

Last 5 overall

1W · 1D · 3L

5 matches · 1.0 scored · 1.2 conceded per match

Away split

0W · 2D · 3L

5 matches · 0.6 scored · 1.2 conceded per match

Attack rank

91 of 204

Defence rank

143 of 204

Model reference group: SA