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Informational only — not betting advice.
ELC·Championship

Southampton vs Stoke

Southampton

vs

Stoke

Sat, 22 Aug 2026 14:00:00 GMT·Post-match review

Final

3–1

First published
Model dc-1.2-r20260810T042826ZSat, 15 Aug 2026 22:20:20 GMT
Locked at kick-off
Sat, 22 Aug 2026 14:00:00 GMT
Settled after the final whistle
Sat, 22 Aug 2026 22:21:39 GMT

Four markets

Probability view

1X2

Match result

WIN
Home
54%
Draw
25%
Away
22%

Picked Home · Actual Home

O/U 2.5

Total goals

WIN

Over 2.5

52%

Under 2.5

Probabilities describe model uncertainty, not certainty. Correct-score settlement uses the Top 1 pick. Predictions are informational only and are not betting advice.

48%

Picked Over 2.5 · Actual Over 2.5

BTTS

Both teams to score

WIN

Yes

56%

No

44%

Picked Yes · Actual Yes

Correct score

Top 3

LOSS
  1. #11-112%
  2. #21-011%
  3. #32-110%
Score probability field for Southampton versus Stoke

Picked 1-1 · Actual 3-1

Top 3 displayed picks are shown for context; settlement uses the Top 1 pick.

Evidence

Why the model leaned this way

Inputs locked before kickoff: recent WDL, average goals for and against, home/away splits, and model attack/defence ranks.

Home team

Southampton

Last 5 overall

3W · 2D · 0L

5 matches · 2.4 scored · 1.2 conceded per match

Home split

3W · 2D · 0L

5 matches · 2.2 scored · 1.0 conceded per match

Attack rank

66 of 204

Defence rank

153 of 204

Model reference group: ELC

Away team

Stoke

Last 5 overall

0W · 0D · 5L

5 matches · 0.6 scored · 2.4 conceded per match

Away split

0W · 0D · 5L

5 matches · 0.2 scored · 2.2 conceded per match

Attack rank

162 of 204

Defence rank

140 of 204

Model reference group: ELC