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Informational only — not betting advice.
SA·Serie A

Parma vs Cagliari

Parma

vs

Cagliari

Sat, 22 Aug 2026 18:45:00 GMT·Post-match review

Final

0–1

First published
Model dc-1.2-r20260810T042826ZSat, 15 Aug 2026 22:20:20 GMT
Locked at kick-off
Sat, 22 Aug 2026 18:45:00 GMT
Settled after the final whistle
Sat, 22 Aug 2026 22:21:39 GMT

Four markets

Probability view

1X2

Match result

LOSS
Home
36%
Draw
31%
Away
33%

Picked Home · Actual Away

O/U 2.5

Total goals

WIN

Over 2.5

35%

Under 2.5

Probabilities describe model uncertainty, not certainty. Correct-score settlement uses the Top 1 pick. Predictions are informational only and are not betting advice.

65%

Picked Under 2.5 · Actual Under 2.5

BTTS

Both teams to score

LOSS

Yes

51%

No

49%

Picked Yes · Actual No

Correct score

Top 3

LOSS
  1. #11-114%
  2. #20-013%
  3. #31-013%
Score probability field for Parma versus Cagliari

Picked 1-1 · Actual 0-1

Top 3 displayed picks are shown for context; settlement uses the Top 1 pick.

Evidence

Why the model leaned this way

Inputs locked before kickoff: recent WDL, average goals for and against, home/away splits, and model attack/defence ranks.

Home team

Parma

Last 5 overall

2W · 0D · 3L

5 matches · 0.8 scored · 1.2 conceded per match

Home split

2W · 1D · 2L

5 matches · 1.0 scored · 1.2 conceded per match

Attack rank

170 of 204

Defence rank

100 of 204

Model reference group: SA

Away team

Cagliari

Last 5 overall

3W · 1D · 1L

5 matches · 1.4 scored · 1.2 conceded per match

Away split

1W · 1D · 3L

5 matches · 0.8 scored · 1.8 conceded per match

Attack rank

120 of 204

Defence rank

149 of 204

Model reference group: SA