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Informational only — not betting advice.
FL1·Ligue 1

Lens vs Auxerre

Lens

vs

Auxerre

Sat, 22 Aug 2026 15:15:00 GMT·Post-match review

Final

5–2

First published
Model dc-1.2-r20260810T042826ZSat, 15 Aug 2026 22:20:20 GMT
Locked at kick-off
Sat, 22 Aug 2026 15:15:00 GMT
Settled after the final whistle
Sat, 22 Aug 2026 22:21:39 GMT

Four markets

Probability view

1X2

Match result

WIN
Home
58%
Draw
25%
Away
17%

Picked Home · Actual Home

O/U 2.5

Total goals

LOSS

Over 2.5

47%

Under 2.5

Probabilities describe model uncertainty, not certainty. Correct-score settlement uses the Top 1 pick. Predictions are informational only and are not betting advice.

53%

Picked Under 2.5 · Actual Over 2.5

BTTS

Both teams to score

WIN

Yes

52%

No

48%

Picked Yes · Actual Yes

Correct score

Top 3

LOSS
  1. #11-013%
  2. #22-012%
  3. #31-112%
Score probability field for Lens versus Auxerre

Picked 1-0 · Actual 5-2

Top 3 displayed picks are shown for context; settlement uses the Top 1 pick.

Evidence

Why the model leaned this way

Inputs locked before kickoff: recent WDL, average goals for and against, home/away splits, and model attack/defence ranks.

Home team

Lens

Last 5 overall

2W · 2D · 1L

5 matches · 1.8 scored · 1.2 conceded per match

Home split

4W · 0D · 1L

5 matches · 2.4 scored · 1.0 conceded per match

Attack rank

21 of 204

Defence rank

26 of 204

Model reference group: FL1

Away team

Auxerre

Last 5 overall

3W · 1D · 1L

5 matches · 2.2 scored · 1.4 conceded per match

Away split

1W · 2D · 2L

5 matches · 1.4 scored · 1.4 conceded per match

Attack rank

94 of 204

Defence rank

45 of 204

Model reference group: FL1