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Informational only — not betting advice.
PL·Premier League

Ipswich vs Sunderland

Ipswich

vs

Sunderland

Sat, 22 Aug 2026 14:00:00 GMT·Post-match review

Final

2–1

Home cold start
First published
Model dc-1.2-r20260810T042826ZSat, 15 Aug 2026 22:20:20 GMT
Locked at kick-off
Sat, 22 Aug 2026 14:00:00 GMT
Settled after the final whistle
Sat, 22 Aug 2026 22:21:39 GMT

Four markets

Probability view

1X2

Match result

LOSS
Home
34%
Draw
29%
Away
37%

Picked Away · Actual Home

O/U 2.5

Total goals

LOSS

Over 2.5

43%

Under 2.5

Probabilities describe model uncertainty, not certainty. Correct-score settlement uses the Top 1 pick. Predictions are informational only and are not betting advice.

57%

Picked Under 2.5 · Actual Over 2.5

BTTS

Both teams to score

WIN

Yes

54%

No

46%

Picked Yes · Actual Yes

Correct score

Top 3

LOSS
  1. #11-114%
  2. #20-111%
  3. #31-010%
Score probability field for Ipswich versus Sunderland

Picked 1-1 · Actual 2-1

Top 3 displayed picks are shown for context; settlement uses the Top 1 pick.

Evidence

Why the model leaned this way

Inputs locked before kickoff: recent WDL, average goals for and against, home/away splits, and model attack/defence ranks.

Home team

Ipswich

Cold start

Last 5 overall

2W · 3D · 0L

5 matches · 1.8 scored · 1.0 conceded per match

Home split

2W · 3D · 0L

5 matches · 1.8 scored · 1.0 conceded per match

Attack rank

129 of 204

Defence rank

156 of 204

Model reference group: PL

Away team

Sunderland

Last 5 overall

2W · 2D · 1L

5 matches · 1.2 scored · 1.6 conceded per match

Away split

3W · 1D · 1L

5 matches · 2.0 scored · 1.4 conceded per match

Attack rank

119 of 204

Defence rank

92 of 204

Model reference group: PL