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Informational only — not betting advice.
SA·Serie A

Genoa vs Napoli

Genoa

vs

Napoli

Sat, 22 Aug 2026 18:45:00 GMT·Post-match review

Final

0–2

First published
Model dc-1.2-r20260810T042826ZSat, 15 Aug 2026 22:20:20 GMT
Locked at kick-off
Sat, 22 Aug 2026 18:45:00 GMT
Settled after the final whistle
Sat, 22 Aug 2026 22:21:39 GMT

Four markets

Probability view

1X2

Match result

WIN
Home
24%
Draw
28%
Away
48%

Picked Away · Actual Away

O/U 2.5

Total goals

WIN

Over 2.5

41%

Under 2.5

Probabilities describe model uncertainty, not certainty. Correct-score settlement uses the Top 1 pick. Predictions are informational only and are not betting advice.

59%

Picked Under 2.5 · Actual Under 2.5

BTTS

Both teams to score

LOSS

Yes

52%

No

48%

Picked Yes · Actual No

Correct score

Top 3

LOSS
  1. #10-113%
  2. #21-113%
  3. #30-010%
Score probability field for Genoa versus Napoli

Picked 0-1 · Actual 0-2

Top 3 displayed picks are shown for context; settlement uses the Top 1 pick.

Evidence

Why the model leaned this way

Inputs locked before kickoff: recent WDL, average goals for and against, home/away splits, and model attack/defence ranks.

Home team

Genoa

Last 5 overall

0W · 2D · 3L

5 matches · 0.2 scored · 1.0 conceded per match

Home split

2W · 0D · 3L

5 matches · 1.0 scored · 1.6 conceded per match

Attack rank

124 of 204

Defence rank

109 of 204

Model reference group: SA

Away team

Napoli

Last 5 overall

3W · 1D · 1L

5 matches · 2.0 scored · 0.6 conceded per match

Away split

3W · 2D · 0L

5 matches · 1.4 scored · 0.4 conceded per match

Attack rank

45 of 204

Defence rank

32 of 204

Model reference group: SA