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Informational only — not betting advice.
PD·La Liga

Espanol vs Real Madrid

Espanol

vs

Real Madrid

Sat, 22 Aug 2026 19:30:00 GMT·Post-match review

Final

1–2

First published
Model dc-1.2-r20260810T042826ZSat, 15 Aug 2026 22:20:20 GMT
Locked at kick-off
Sat, 22 Aug 2026 19:30:00 GMT
Settled after the final whistle
Sat, 22 Aug 2026 22:21:39 GMT

Four markets

Probability view

1X2

Match result

WIN
Home
17%
Draw
22%
Away
61%

Picked Away · Actual Away

O/U 2.5

Total goals

WIN

Over 2.5

56%

Under 2.5

Probabilities describe model uncertainty, not certainty. Correct-score settlement uses the Top 1 pick. Predictions are informational only and are not betting advice.

44%

Picked Over 2.5 · Actual Over 2.5

BTTS

Both teams to score

WIN

Yes

56%

No

44%

Picked Yes · Actual Yes

Correct score

Top 3

LOSS
  1. #11-111%
  2. #20-210%
  3. #30-110%
Score probability field for Espanol versus Real Madrid

Picked 1-1 · Actual 1-2

Top 3 displayed picks are shown for context; settlement uses the Top 1 pick.

Evidence

Why the model leaned this way

Inputs locked before kickoff: recent WDL, average goals for and against, home/away splits, and model attack/defence ranks.

Home team

Espanol

Last 5 overall

2W · 1D · 2L

5 matches · 1.2 scored · 1.2 conceded per match

Home split

1W · 2D · 2L

5 matches · 0.8 scored · 1.0 conceded per match

Attack rank

127 of 204

Defence rank

101 of 204

Model reference group: PD

Away team

Real Madrid

Last 5 overall

4W · 0D · 1L

5 matches · 1.8 scored · 0.8 conceded per match

Away split

2W · 1D · 2L

5 matches · 1.4 scored · 1.4 conceded per match

Attack rank

6 of 204

Defence rank

20 of 204

Model reference group: PD