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Informational only — not betting advice.
ELC·Championship

Derby vs Cardiff

Derby

vs

Cardiff

Sat, 22 Aug 2026 14:00:00 GMT·Post-match review

Final

2–2

Away cold start
First published
Model dc-1.2-r20260810T042826ZSat, 15 Aug 2026 22:20:20 GMT
Locked at kick-off
Sat, 22 Aug 2026 14:00:00 GMT
Settled after the final whistle
Sat, 22 Aug 2026 22:21:39 GMT

Four markets

Probability view

1X2

Match result

LOSS
Home
47%
Draw
26%
Away
27%

Picked Home · Actual Draw

O/U 2.5

Total goals

LOSS

Over 2.5

49%

Under 2.5

Probabilities describe model uncertainty, not certainty. Correct-score settlement uses the Top 1 pick. Predictions are informational only and are not betting advice.

51%

Picked Under 2.5 · Actual Over 2.5

BTTS

Both teams to score

WIN

Yes

55%

No

45%

Picked Yes · Actual Yes

Correct score

Top 3

LOSS
  1. #11-113%
  2. #21-011%
  3. #32-19%
Score probability field for Derby versus Cardiff

Picked 1-1 · Actual 2-2

Top 3 displayed picks are shown for context; settlement uses the Top 1 pick.

Evidence

Why the model leaned this way

Inputs locked before kickoff: recent WDL, average goals for and against, home/away splits, and model attack/defence ranks.

Home team

Derby

Last 5 overall

2W · 0D · 3L

5 matches · 1.4 scored · 1.6 conceded per match

Home split

4W · 0D · 1L

5 matches · 1.4 scored · 0.6 conceded per match

Attack rank

109 of 204

Defence rank

122 of 204

Model reference group: ELC

Away team

Cardiff

Cold start

Last 5 overall

0W · 2D · 3L

5 matches · 0.6 scored · 1.6 conceded per match

Away split

1W · 2D · 2L

5 matches · 1.2 scored · 1.8 conceded per match

Attack rank

120 of 204

Defence rank

151 of 204

Model reference group: ELC